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Brett's Real Estate News & Deals April 4th, 2020

Updated: Apr 9

The Two Most Important Housing Market Indicators In the Corona Lockdown (Right Now)

As we enter our new predicament It's hard to know what's around the corner but there is a way to take a peak.

Going into February 2020 real estate inventory was low and prices were up. Most local indicators screamed "Seller's market" with the exception days-on-market which was up but that's normal for winter.

In the chart below I took the normally boring period of Feb. 20th to March 20th. I compared how many properties were pending during this time over the past decade. That's the blue line. Next I graphed the number of closings during the same period.

Pending sales and closings should track nearly in lockstep and they do until this year. As you can see closings are flat from 2019 to 2020 but Pending Sales are down about 5%. It's definitely a gut punch. It indicates more buyers than normal have backed-out or lost their financing.

Meanwhile, and I apologize for the tiny labels in the chart below, inventory remains unusually tight. The top line of the chart below is the number of active listings from April 2019 through the end of March 2020. March 2020 inventory is about 16% lower than from where it left off last year. It's starting to feel like a game of musical chairs.

Maybe more inventory will pour into the market in April but at this moment it doesn't look like that's happening. And unless more properties come on the market prices will remain strong. As long as the world remains rational, ahem, prices in Louisville should appreciate this year. So despite the unleashed demons wreaking havoc on world markets it still looks like a seller's market in Louisville KY for the time being.

Weekly Inventory News

New Listings - 413

Under Contract - 155

Pending - 383

Closings - 380

Price Changes - 218

Rental Listings - 36

MLS Deals (Note: MLS links in this post expire in 30 days!)

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